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Prediction for CME (2023-11-03T05:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-03T05:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27562/-1
CME Note: Large complex-shaped (possibly partial halo) to the north. Source is likely the eruption of a very long filament stretching from N42E15 to N01W60 seen in AIA 193/304/131. The filament is centered very approximately around N30W30. The eruption was likely associated with the corresponding long duration C3.2-class flare peaking at 2023-11-03T06:17Z. Arrival signature: a sharp temporary jump in total magnetic field to 44 nT at 2023-11-05T11:45Z, up from the already elevated 20 nT after CME arrival four hours prior) accompanied by a jump in solar wind speed from 400 to 520 km/s; ion density remains high after the previous arrival in the morning. The arrival is followed by a bout of negative Bz with values close to -20 nT. Further analysis of this arrival signature in consultation with Lan Jian (NASA/GSFC) can be found in DONKI: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/IPS/27611/-1
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T11:45Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-05T22:13Z (-9.65h, +8.13h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/11/03 05:30Z
Plane of Sky 1: 12:40Z; 31.5Rsun; NNE Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; SSW Direction
POS Difference: 2:50
POS Midpoint: 14:05Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:35

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~7.54
Travel Time: ~7.54 * 8:35 = 64:43

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-11-05T22:13Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 10%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5

Lead Time: 43.00 hour(s)
Difference: -10.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-11-03T16:45Z

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